Occasional comments by Ken Davies on China's economy and business climate (and occasionally other things)
Friday, 20 March 2015
OECD Economic Survey of China now out
20/03/2015 - After three decades of extraordinary economic development, China is shifting to a slower and more sustainable growth path. Further reforms are now needed to ensure that future growth is resilient, inclusive and green, according to the OECD’s latest Economic Survey of China. The OECD forecasts that China’s GDP will grow by 7% this year and 6.9% in 2016.
“Following one of the most tremendous economic expansions in world history, China’s gradual transition
towards a ‘new normal’ of slower, more sustainable growth is to be welcomed”
OECD Secretary-General Angel Gurría said. “China knows how to grow at a blistering pace.
The challenge now is to ensure that future growth occurs on a more durable and inclusive footing.”
The ongoing transition of the Chinese economy is multifaceted – from rural to urban, investment to
consumption and manufacturing to services – and will require unwavering commitment to structural reforms.
The OECD highlights a number of reforms to address the economic and social challenges faced by China. In the near term, China must maintain sufficient momentum to reduce economic imbalances while avoiding overly abrupt adjustments that might trigger a crisis. Looking ahead, the services sector will benefit from opening up to private investment and reducing the market share of state-owned enterprises in commercially-oriented activities. Greater innovation activity is also necessary to reduce the gap between China and the most knowledge-based economies, and will be a key element in Chinese efforts to move from middle-income to higher-income status.
Specific OECD policy recommendations include:
Reforms for sustainable growth. All firms should compete on a level playing field with regard to finance, regulation, taxation and public procurement. China should continue to gradually liberalise deposit interest rates while enhancing financial stability. Furthermore, it should increase fiscal transparency and sustainability.
Urbanisation and services as drivers of growth. To realise potential productivity gains related to the shift of rural residents to cities, China should also extend public service provision and social security coverage to all migrant workers and make social security benefits portable across the country. The share of services in value added has now overtaken that of manufacturing and will rise further as China becomes richer and urbanisation proceeds. But China needs to scale down state-ownership in commercially-oriented service enterprises and open up more industries for private investment.
Nurturing the right skills. To meet the demand of a knowledge-based economy, China should establish an effective countrywide VET system, evaluate universities and university staff on the quality of academic output and bolster merit-based promotion and stronger intellectual property rights. China should boost public spending on education, including by increasing teacher compensation to improve education quality while also ensuring equal opportunities for disadvantaged children.
Agricultural reforms. All rural households should receive certificates detailing their land-use rights and well-designed exchange platforms for land operation rights should be established. There is substantial scope for improvements in access to finance in rural areas, education and training for farmers, the pricing of natural resources and rural infrastructure. Along with hukou reform, rural wellbeing will also benefit from expanded coverage of rural social welfare payments and better rural health services.
This year marks the 20th anniversary of the OECD’s partnership with China.
Journalists seeking further information should contact the OECD’s Media Division: firstname.lastname@example.org, +33 1 45 24 97 00.